This Week in Banks, A Vibes Check in Big Bank Land

Reading between the lines on earnings calls

Vibes Check You Say?

At precisely 6:47 AM this Saturday morning, I (by I what I really mean is we - thanks AI) finished reading & listening to 376 pages of earnings call transcripts from America's largest banks. Armed with nothing but a nitro cold brew and an obsession for verbal nuance, I undertook what Wall Street's algorithms don’t: a systematic analysis of banking executives' psychological tells. You see, while quants chase P/E ratios and beta coefficients, I've been tracking something far more revealing – the pregnant pauses, the defensive word choices, and the subtle shifts in tone when CEOs face unexpected questions from analysts. It’s the poker table of the finance world.

What emerged from this deep dive wasn't just data, but a fascinating psychological portrait of American banking's corner offices. When a CEO switches from "robust" to "stable" in describing their loan book, or when a CFO takes an extra beat before addressing credit quality, they're telling us something that won't show up in any SEC filing. I've ranked thirteen banks based on these verbal cues, creating what I call a "vibes check" – because sometimes, the most valuable signals are hidden in plain sight, wrapped in corporate communications speak, waiting for someone obsessive enough to decode them.

Hint: it typically pays to bet on the clear, confident, and strong ones.

But First the EPS Report

Before we get into the vibes check, here is the lay of the land as we sit today. I think CFR still has to report so this is pulling last quarter, but everyone else has. They’re ranked by biggest GAAP EPS surprise relative to others, and I also showed the weekly and month to date price change. Some big red numbers are showing on the week because we limped into the close this week. From a valuation standpoint, forward multiples seem “fair” if not slightly over valued. I’m not overly long into this last election push either.

Vibes Check:

Here are the vibes check for big banks. I picked the 13 names I care most about right now. I added a tag line and then some “fictional” company commentary based on the earnings call Q&As. I tried to capture the spirit and the soul of how the teams’ answered questions, how tight they were, how willing they were to project forward, and broadly how it made me feel. Use this as you will. I personally add this into my decision making for longs or for shorts …