So You Missed Nubank at $5?

Don’t Miss What’s Coming for StoneCo and PagSeguro in Brazil. A vibes dive, looking at PIX, the competitive landscape, valuations, and ways to play it.

I missed it too.

Watched Nubank trade at $5, scrolled past it more times than I care to admit. Didn’t pull the trigger. Thought it was “too consumer,” “too expensive,” “too soon.”

Then it hit $8—and I finally stepped in.

Was I early? No. But I wasn’t too late either. That almost 2x’d and I shaved off 2/3 the position at $15 when flows were rushing out and the dollar was screaming.

And now I’m seeing that same setup again—except this time, it’s hiding in plain sight under names like StoneCo and PagSeguro. Stocks down 30% to 40% over the past year trading at 5–7x earnings, with real businesses, real margins, and a market that’s priced them like they’re already dead.

They’re not.

This isn’t a disruption story. It’s a re-rating setup hiding in plain sight. And if Brazil’s macro even flinches in the right direction, you’re looking at one of the cleanest asymmetry plays in global markets.

The market’s written Brazil off. Everyone’s scared of Lula. Inflation anxiety is back. The real has been clubbed. SELIC is sticky.

And the vibes? Total apathy. Investors have left this country for dead while racing to buy Europe and China.

But under the surface, two bruised-but-profitable fintechs—StoneCo and PagSeguro—are still putting up growth, returning capital, and getting priced like they’re on life support.

The funny thing? Execution’s exactly what they’re delivering. Both have adapted to PIX. Both are building ecosystem moats. One’s returning cash. The other’s ready to roar if rates fall.

This isn’t about who disrupts who. It’s about who re-rates first, when the macro tide finally stops working against them. Are there risks? Absolutely, but these are the exact types of set ups I like.

Let’s dive in …