My Bank Crystal Ball Is Trying to Tell Me What's Going to Happen (Again)

Bank macro & equities outlook, SLR relief, and Citibank (yes again), plus a regional or two

Banks haven't exactly been thrillers lately. The recent Trump tariff tantrum knocked U.S. bank stocks around pretty good, leaving them down roughly 10 to 15 percent from recent peaks and languishing near the 100dma for some and 200dma for others (note the techincally weak banks I listed in the chat weeks ago are still sucking wind). But while everyone else panics at recession whispers, I’m doing what I always do, grinding, keeping it real, and letting the vibes tell me where to go. Along these lines, recently I checked our Substack metrics (because data beats guesses every day), and here’s what stood out: with 13-17 pieces per month, our community’s activity ranks in the top 10% on the platform, and email open rates are at elite levels. You all reach out to chat on individual names, you tell me when you think I’m wrong, and your words of praise come it too. That kind of engagement inspires me daily to keep sharing actionable insights. So, thank you. Seriously. Let’s keep Victaurs strong and growing.

Also, yes we’ve had some wins. Let’s keep it going (prickish title notwithstanding).

A Bank Macro Update from my Imperfect Crystal Ball

But onto the insights. I peered into my crystal ball and here is what I see. (Editors note: I do not have a crystal ball). First a bit about the macro back drop, then a bit about regulatory relief that I think is coming, and then to bore you all again the bull case on Citibank for the 420th time. Premium members read on …