Nubank: A Post Earnings Crash & What Everyone Is Missing

Recent vibes, an 8 quarter look back, the FX blame game, NIM compression, expansion report, the defensive pivot, Brazil's a mess, and management's tone change. Plus a 20% discount for annual plans.

The stock market is a war zone and NuBank (NU) is one of its latest battlefields. Over the past two years, the stock ripped +123%, making believers out of fintech bulls. But in the last twelve months? Up just 7%. And after Q4 earnings? Down 20% in a day. The bulls are scrambling for answers. The bears are celebrating. And the rest of the market? Confused.

The question is simple: Is NuBank still a disruptor, or is it just another bank?

Margins are tightening. Growth is slowing (yes from a high base). And management’s tone has shifted. It’s no longer about hypergrowth at all costs—it’s about disciplined expansion. The easy wins are over. What happens next will define whether NuBank deserves a fintech premium or gets valued like just another dare I say … bank.

The Recent Vibes (Highlights from the Q4 Earnings Call)