Blood in the U.S. Banks: Sifting Through the Damage for Bank Shorts & Longs

Premium member only deep dive into the Trump induced U.S. Bank damage.

A couple of weeks ago, I mentioned there was plenty of volatility in the market. Immediately, my inbox lit up with "Where’s the volatility? I don’t see volatility."

Oh, you don’t? Well, open your eyes.

When I talk, it’s not for clicks—it’s because I see what’s happening beneath the surface.

One minute, tariffs are back. The next, they’re gone. Zelensky’s latest Ukraine stunt feels like a lost episode of The Apprentice. DOGE is still running over risk assets like a drunken wrecking ball. Bessent is out here willing Treasuries lower. Fed GDPNow? -1% … no, wait, -2.8% … and by the time they post, it’ll probably be slightly green.

So yeah, there’s volatility. Instead of doom-scrolling and crying on X, I do what I do best: I get to work.

Last week, I dropped two pieces on where this market is actually headed. If you missed them, that’s on you.

One piece was on flows—how they’ve shifted, where the money is actually going. The other? Why the market is broadening out and why the MAG7 isn’t the only game in town anymore. (Hint: Euro banks are having a moment—something I was early on, by the way.)

I’ve been adding to China and Europe for months, and I still like the setups. Especially with today’s China stimulus headlines—more stimmys, more upside.

And yes, I’ve been bullish on Euro banks and UK banks for a while (even when hedgies swore I was wrong). Could they pull back? Sure. Kinda did yesterday. But zoom out—the longer-term setup still looks solid. That one is linked here: Flows & Euro Banks.

And now, for the premium members-only U.S. Bank content—one for my OG bank people. Us tired, underpaid, underappreciated, smart, driven, gluttons for punishment, the bank investors.

The recent market volatility? Banks weren’t spared. And I was SHOCKED (truly, deeply, profoundly) when price action confirmed that … YES … BANKS ARE CYCLICAL. My world? Upside down. Who could have seen this coming? (Oh, right. Everyone paying attention.)

But snark aside, let’s get into it. Premium members, I appreciate you. Your support means everything. Let’s dive in. Let’s make it happen.